Predicting the Efficiency of Solar Photovoltaic Energy Injection in a Localized Subtropical Grid by Modelling Actual Generation Trend Curves: Case Study of Douala

Abstract

Electrified cities in Cameroon suffer untimely power outages for several reasons, among which a low production of electrical energy; a palliative solution of the consequences would be, as projected, to identify and supply priority loads through solar photovoltaic electrification. Producing solar photovoltaic (PV) energy and injecting it into the domestic conventional electricity network (CEN), to supply priority loads, has to face high investment costs and in the economic and technical context, the feasibility and also the long-term efficiency must be analyzed. Based on the regulation of a set of production units, the collection of actual production and consumption data from several sites in the city of Douala was used. An analysis of the data from the data acquisition systems of the reference installations allowed the development of production models of the PV systems injected into the targeted conventional electricity network (CEN).  Consumption modelling of PV system output over a long lifetime will be developed. Based on the collected real data, simulations of long-term load supply scenarios will be performed in the MATLAB software package environment. The influence of operational parameters on the efficiency of solar energy injections will be evaluated in order to improve productivity until the end of the system's life. We will show through the simulation of previously and judiciously selected conditions, the modalities of a good prediction of the efficiency of the solar energy injection in the urban CEN.